Thursday 28 February 2013

Uncovering the Truth

A groundbreaking article, published in the Wall Street Journal, in 2008, led the path to revealing the true extent of the current LIBOR fixing. The journalists uncovered the scandal by comparing LIBOR fluctuations to those of the Deposit Insurance market. They found that from January 2008 onwards these rates, which usually moved in tandem, has a less than perfect relationship. Although The Journal hinted, it refused to explicitly state that fixing was occurring, however, it was the catalyst for the investigation which followed. The article showed the extent to which the rates differed to the soundness of the bank.


As early as 2007, there were concerns raised that the LIBOR was in fact being manipulated by the banks. However, these were ignored. It was not until 2010 that the Financial Services Authority began an investigation into the matter. This investigation ultimately led to the fining of $453 million against Barclays. The report revealed that the rigging began in 2005. This delay in reacting has led to widespread criticism of the FSA and other regulatory bodies, however, the FSA has recently denied failing to respond quickly.  

 
The scandal hit the world stage in June of 2012, when within one week emails revealing manipulation were made public, Barclays was forced to pay millions as a result of fixing the rate and a criminal investigation was launched.
To look at a timeline of events, click here.
Empirical research has also been used to investigate what trends had become apparent as the fixing evolved. Snider and Youley, 2012, compare the LIBOR with the EuroDollar market rate, thus comparing the actual rates used with those quoted. Their results indicate, using skewness as a measurement of divergence between the markets, that the difference for some banks was as high as 40 basis points. They also look at the CDS spreads in contrast with the LIBOR given by banks. Intuitively one would imagine that these two would have a positive relationship, however, this, they found, is not always the case. They find that certain banks, Citi in particular, reported a far too low LIBOR relative to their CDS spreads.