Sunday 17 February 2013

LIBOR's Central Role in the Economy

What is the‘base rate’?
 
In Britain, the Bank of England is responsible for the implementation of monetary policy. The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meets on a monthly basis in order to review a key instrument of monetary policy, the base rate. This figure indicates the rate at which the BoE is willing to lend to financial institutions. Despite meeting regularly the MPC have held the interest rate stable, at 0.5%, since the second quarter of 2009. The BoE’s website states that this base rate“affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks, building societies and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers.”Therefore, it is through this rate that the BoE attempts to influence expenditure within the economy and thus, in their eyes, it is central in the transmission of monetary policy.
But how important is this rate for you?
Gaspar and Pérez Quirós, 2004, argue that the interbank market in fact holds“the first step in the monetary transmission mechanism.” As the LIBOR rate reflects the true cost of borrowing for banks, they often pin their interest rates, for both corporate and personal loans, to the LIBOR. This is in particular the case for short term loans; however, many mortgages are also linked to the LIBOR. Therefore, it would appear that it has a great effect on expenditure in the economy. Interestingly the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission claims that in excess of $800 trillion worth of loans are fixed to the LIBOR. This, The Economist notes, is ten times the world economy! The New York Times stated that 45% of prime mortgages, in the U.S., are affected by it and a staggering 80% of subprime mortgages.
 
How is the LIBOR different?
As the interbank market involves unsecured lending, the base rate incurs a risk premium (Christensen, Lopez, Rudebusch, 2009). Thus, during riskier economic periods, interbank rates, such as the LIBOR, are more volatile and see a greater divergence from the base rate. This can be clearly seen from the graph below. So, if your loan is linked to the LIBOR rather than the base rate, tough economic times will become even tougher.